Posts Tagged Under ‘2008 Elections’
Election Narrative?
After reading this Newsweek opinion piece on Obama, which is similar to this Slate piece and another post I wrote, I have to wonder if the Democratic election narrative won’t go something like this:
1. Obama wins nomination, which is attributed to his feel-good rhetoric
2. Media logically begins inspection into his positions
3. Said positions aren’t that different than anything already out there
4. Media / McCain emphasizes this point, deflating “message of change”
If excitement about change really is Obama’s biggest strength, then that’s potential trouble.
Going Out On a Less-Than-Graceful Note
From Politico:
Romney framed his departure as one of duty to party and country. “If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Sen. Clinton or Obama would win,” he said. “And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.”
“A surrender to terror” if a Democrat wins? Come on, man, that is so 2004.
The OS X Candidate?
This Tuesday is not only Fat, but Super!
Geeta and I were discussing the election yesterday, and I noted how Barack Obama’s oft-cited appeal to young, creative types like us — that might be flattery, but hey, we are the target demo — makes me worry that the rest of the country might actually resent him for it. His flock might be seen as too cool and hip for the average folk, and they’d hold it against him. Then I read this, and it brought that thought home in a neat geeky analogy:
I’ve taken shots at Apple before for their cooler-than-thou branding, and their fan base in some ways parallels the nature of Obama’s. But I think it would be unfair to make this comparison based on Hillary and Obama themselves, since Obama is putting forth ideas and optimism without exclusion, and some of his supporters just happen to trend toward the young and fashionable. Apple’s anti-PC thing is a deliberate marketing strategy; Obama’s audience came together on its own, and while the young part of it gets a lot of press, he has supporters of all stripes.
It’s still an interesting comparison of the two Democratic camps. And like Microsoft, Hillary is doing pretty well in financial market share herself.
The GOP in Florida
Quick reaction:
- I am relieved for America’s role in the world that Rudy Giuliani is out of the race. He was notoriously advised on “World War IV” by none other than Norman Podhoretz, the Iraq war advocate who also wrote last year that he “hopes and prays” for the bombing of Iran. Giuliani’s reputation for racial divide would not play well either at home or on the world stage. Bob Herbert said on TV today that it seemed that the more voters got to know Giuliani, the less they liked him, and that does seem to have played out with his Florida dropoff.
- While McCain is the favorite nominee of so many independents and those straddling the party divide, I do think he’ll have to nominate a very Bush-like running mate to help strengthen party support for his ticket. Look for someone like Sam Brownback to turn up again.
- I’m still surprised Romney has gotten this far.
I wonder how McCain vs. Clinton could play out?
Primary Picks Update
For anyone keeping score — aside from the dudes at work, who already are — I’m currently tied for 10th out of 14 Slate people in our work primary pool. We get different point values per state for each correct 1st, 2nd or 3rd-place pick up through Feb. 5, and right now I have 14. Here’s my correct picks so far:
DEMS - 10
Iowa (1 point each): Obama - 1st
N.H. (2): Clinton - 1st, Obama - 2nd, Edwards - 3rd
Nev. (1): Clinton - 1st, Obama - 2nd, Edwards - 3rd
G.O.P. - 4
Iowa (1): nope
N.H. (2): McCain - 1st
Mich. (1): Romney - 1st, McCain - 2nd
Nev.: don’t think so
S.C.: not happening
My picks so far include such spectacular misses as Giuliani placing in the top 3 for N.H. and Michigan without any campaigning, Ron Paul finishing 3rd in Nevada — I probably got distracted by the ever-present Paultard hacking threat — and Joe Biden staying in the race to finish 3rd in New York. (Where the hell did I come up with that one?)
So I’d like to thank the Republicans for not only playing havoc with our great nation, but costing me bragging rights among my coworkers. (Minus a certain high-placed editor, who at the moment is tied for last.) Much obliged, dudes.
Quick Hits
Yo.
- Romney winning Michigan is a little surprising, but then I say that as someone who picked him to win the state a few weeks back, only to later doubt my own pick. The reports said a lot of his votes came from the affluent Michigan suburbs, which would make sense because I really don’t see him ever connecting with middle-middle-, lower-middle- and impoverished-class voters. The dude is just way too inauthentic and screams “privileged guy” too loudly. I think the rest of the Michigan GOP must have been split evenly between McCain and Huckabee and allowed Romney to hook it up.
- Opinion: Chuck Brown and Fugazi are the best musical acts to come from D.C. Your thoughts? Not that it matters, being that I’m right. I’ll make a possible exception for Minor Threat, but that was Ian MacKaye too, so in that case you’re just debating MacKaye-led bands.
- The water heater died yesterday in our apartment building, so I had to heat up a pot of water and bathe with that, a washcloth and a bar of soap. I felt and smelled just as clean as I would have been following a regular shower, and the whole thing was strangely invigorating, which is probably because I was freezing my ass off as the water cooled between rinses. Still, if we someday have to go back to nineteenth-century life, I think I could handle it in the bathing department. Although if I did have to go back to the 1800s, I’d miss cryingwhileeating.com.
- Jeremiah pointed to this a while back, but talking about D.C. made me remember that it won for coolest city flag. I happen to think Phoenix and Wichita should be ranked higher and Denver lower, and would like to ask what exactly Provo was thinking.
Out.
Biden
We’re now up to three Democrats who’ve dropped out — Bill Richardson having dropped yesterday, who was preceded by Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. So, I thought I’d state my preference now for Biden as Secretary of State should the next administration be Democratic.
Biden is pretty high on himself — note how often he appears on TV — and he did vote for that 2005 bankruptcy bill that helped out the always-needy credit-card companies. (Looking at the voting list, I note that Clinton didn’t vote one way or the other on that highly controversial bill. Interesting!)
But the thing is, every time I see Biden on TV, I find myself agreeing with nearly everything he says. The guy clearly knows his foreign-policy stuff, and assuming he actually means it, I like that he’s made noise about sparking a constitutional war-powers crisis should the President attack Iran. He also is down for a federalized pseudo-partition of Iraq, which I still think is the best hope for a settlement.
Biden would make an excellent Secretary of State. I think he probably ran for President for that exact reason: he’s got to be self-aware enough to know that he wouldn’t match up with the heavy hitters, but he got his name out there in the public eye as someone who’s serious about the executive branch. So let’s get all up on it.
New Hampshire
- Clinton’s win today is supposedly a shocking victory, but I had called that one in my work primary pool. (I also called Obama winning Iowa. What.) I think the “crying” episode put her over the top: humanization was clearly exactly what she needed.
- Speaking of that video, am I the only one who doesn’t think she actually cried? The commentary I read made it sound like she pulled a “Leave Britney alone!”, yet after watching the video three times I still can barely discern the parts where her voice supposedly breaks:
I did find it to be strikingly emotional and personal for her, and that’s true whether you believe it was staged or not. (My vote: not staged.)
- And how stage-managed do people really have to believe you to be when there’s a big debate as to whether you genuinely show emotion or not? If I got up on stage and punched a dude in the face, I’m pretty sure you all wouldn’t be like, “Well, did he actually not like the guy, or did he just do this as a ploy to show his fist-forming abilities to the masses? It’s hard to say!”
- And did you know the “Leave Britney alone” commentator is a dude? I think I was the last person in the country to learn this.
- McCain won. Good for him. And where is Giuliani? He seems to have assumed the Fred Thompson role of just hanging out and figuring he’s cool enough to get votes anyway. I know he’s gunning for later states, but completely ignoring the first two primaries is pretty weird.
I predicted in my pool that the two winners today will be the ultimate nominees. But, we’ll see.
Clever Photo Essay
I’m not into pushing work projects on this site per se, but this photo essay is clever on the for real. Be sure to check out Darren Garnick’s effort to get his baby photographed with all the presidential candidates.
Ego
A good one from Iowa:
BETTENDORF, Iowa - Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney on Wednesday defended his five sons’ decision not to enlist in the military, saying they’re showing their support for the country by “helping me get elected.”
I have no beef with the civilian sons part; they can do whatever they choose with their lives. That said, is it really a good campaign move to imply that aiding one’s personal ascent to power is comparable to a soldier or sailor risking life and limb? I’m sure that many national politicians think thusly, but most of them are at least savvy enough to lie about it on the campaign trail.
Things
- For a heavy but very good read, check out this New Yorker article on the interrogation of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. (h/t Mark.) For some reason we haven’t seen many big pieces mentioning the impact of extra-tough interrogation tactics—the euphemism bell just went off—on the interrogators themselves, but this piece notes that it’s not just the bad guys suffering psychological damage.
- On another note from the article, it seems that one argument for putting the detainees through a regular trial is the simple need to be able to put them somewhere. In the meantime, the best the government can do for the “What do we do with these guys once they’re not as immediately useful?” question seems to be a big shrug. If there’s not a court record of a trial and later sentencing, thirty years from now we’ll still be asking ourselves, “Why exactly are we still hiding a bunch of dangerous Arab and Pakistani guys in Poland when it would have been a lot easier to have just tried and sentenced them to our supermax in Colorado?”
- As much as today’s political climate can be depressing, it’s a lot easier to be 27 in 2007 than it was in 1917.
- One easy way to make your online comment / argument look less intelligent and original is to post song lyrics along with it. I was reading a dude’s critique of the media in some comments section recently and he posted the refrain to “March of the Pigs” by Nine Inch Nails, as if the creative effort of an artist who isn’t you is a good stand-in for using things like applicable facts, reason and logic to show that you know stuff.
Nope.
- This past week saw a mild embarrassment for Rudy Giuliani’s campaign thanks to his daughter’s Facebook membership in “One million strong for Barack”. Meanwhile, it seems that every editor I know from either TIME or Slate (I just gotta use internal title style—force of habit) got together recently and agreed to set up profiles, so now I’m Facebooked in with all the work peeps. So, just a friendly reminder that you never know who’s checking your stuff (probably me, because Facebook is great), and then sometimes you do know, and that person’s kind of a big deal.
“What?! The Internet is public?! Who knew?”
Peace, I’m out.
Required Campaign Reading
All Democratic strategists need to read this article and memorize its every word:
It should really be an incredibly simple premise, but I can’t figure out why some Democratic dudes just can’t grasp it: Joe Average doesn’t have the time or the interest to read your policy papers; he has his family, his job, his mortgage and his favorite sports team to worry about, with maybe some free time for TV or radio. As a result, when elections come around, it’s unfair to expect that Joe magically found the time to read Congressional Quarterly and to pick up an M.A. in foreign relations. (Assuming he got an undergraduate degree in the first place; it’s still only 39% of the population.) Joe’s drawing on a few catch phrases, names and perhaps feelings that came up during the campaign, and casting a vote for “someone who gets it”.
In conclusion, being a political nerd is good because it means you might actually have an idea how to govern, but you better learn to hide that nerd side and get your average dude on for the campaign.
Obama
Barack Obama’s comments about talking directly to Iran and North Korea is a great example of just how narrow our political debate really is: the guy’s talking about doing exactly what the U.S. did for 40 years during the Cold War (which we won), and somehow taking this stance means he supports Iran and North Korea. It’s a lot like the time Obama acknowledged that the Palestinians are suffering, which has long been another truth that must not be spoken. Luckily we have Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney to save us. When I think Hillary and Mitt, I think of things like “conviction” and “short-term political considerations having absolutely no effect on what one says or does in regards to our nation’s well-being.”
If Barack wants to fit into the American political establishment, he clearly needs to learn the arts of ignoring reality and lying to the public, and fast.
RSS
Facebook
MySpace
Digg
del.icio.us
Furl
Google
Yahoo!
Technorati
Recent Comments