Posts Tagged Under ‘U.S.’
Obama and PA
Friend of the site Steve B., whose New York Islanders failed to make the playoffs and thus are not up three games to none like my Pittsburgh Penguins, writes:
what do you make of this Obama/Pennsylvania thing?
Well, Steve: in short, it was mad dumb and probably will get its damage on.
This is usually what happens when you play too hard to your audience, and playing to the audience is particularly frought with difficulty when your audience is a political group like San Francisco liberals that’s defined very specifically on a national level. Americans aren’t into the whole condescending thing, and thus will vote for someone who fronts like a regular guy even as he keeps them down over somebody who might genuinely care about average people but can’t hide a sense of hoity-toitiness well-enough. Obama already has problems with so many of his supporters being hip, urban types — the type of people who are resented by rural PA dudes. William Kristol really went off the deep end trying to say that this makes Obama into some closet Marxist, but this was still tone-deaf politically. So there’s that aspect of it that will hurt him with all the Pennsylvanians who like guns and religion, I think moreso than Jeremiah Wright — at least it was Wright saying that stuff, not Obama.
Plus, it doesn’t even make sense to say that people pursue cultural activities like hunting or religion because of their economic situation. Lots of people back home go hunting and go to church, and I can’t remember ever hearing someone walk out of Mass to shout, “Woo! Take that, all you outsourcing CEOs! Where’s your Chinese manufacturing now!?”
On a related note, liberal fans of cute furry things shouldn’t look down their noses at hunting. With all the deer in Pennsylvania that would otherwise end up starved to death or exploded by a tractor trailer, hunters are a vital population check, plus they tend to be very pro-environment. So there’s that.
Saved
Ignore my previous dour economic analysis. I just got this in the mail:
Dear Taxpayer,
We are pleased to inform you that the United States Congress passed and President George W. Bush signed into law the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, which provides for economic stimulus payments to be made to over 130 million American households. Under this law, you may be entitled to a payment of up to $600 ($1,200 if filing a joint return), plus additional amounts for each qualifying child.
Our national woes are over, thanks to this $600. ($1,200 if filing a joint return — that’s me now! Even better!)
Our $1,200 will go right into my Citibank money-market account, so at least I’m doing my part to prop up the personal-banking arm of one of America’s crucial investment banks. Holla!
The Men Running America (In the Wrong Direction)
Two great moments in quotations today, both from men with the power to influence and shape America’s economic and political situation. The first comes courtesy of Aron Wilder, the CEO of HTFC, a small firm that takes loan applications and sells residential mortgages to larger lenders like GMAC. They’re one of many direct players involved in the subprime mess engulfing the economy. Here’s Mr. Wilder in response to a question from the lawyer representing GMAC, in GMAC’s lawsuit against HTFC for selling improperly underwritten loans [link]:
Q: This is your loan file. What do Mr. and Mrs. Fitzgerald do for a living?
A: I don’t know. Open it up and find it.
Q: Look at your loan file and tell me.
A: Open it up and find it. I’m not your fucking bitch.
Q: Take a look at your loan application.
A: Do it yourself. Do it yourself. You want to do this in front of a judge. Would you prefer to [do] this in front of a judge? Then, shut the fuck up.
Q: Sir, take a look—
A: I’m taking a break. Fuck him. You open up the document. You want me to look at something, you get the document out. Earn your fucking money, asshole. Better get used to it. You’ll retire when I’m done.
That’s usually not the sort of guy whose ilk you want as a huge force in your national economy.
Second, we have Vice President Dick Cheney, the No. 2 member of the United States executive branch. He is thus responsible for executing the will of the people, as written by the people’s representatives in the legislative branch. Here he is being interviewed by ABC News’ Martha Radditz about the Iraq war [link]:
Raddatz: Two-third of Americans say it’s not worth fighting.
Cheney: So?
Raddatz: So? You don’t care what the American people think?
Cheney: No. I think you cannot be blown off course by the fluctuations in the public opinion polls. There has, in fact, been fundamental change and transformation and improvement for the better. That’s a huge accomplishment.
That is an awful lot about the Vice President summed up in the one-syllable clause “So?” The man is concise!
Quick Hits
• Barack Obama’s speech today was a good one, but I don’t quite know why it’s being presented as a game-changer. He had some really intelligent things to say, but he said them over half an hour. Now he’s dependent on a soundbite media to convey that message to voters who won’t otherwise seek him out, those being the ones he’s trying to win over in PA and in the general election. Rev. Wright, meanwhile, offers plenty of soundbites.
But maybe I’m still wrong and voters this election cycle want broader information from their candidates. This dude’s grasp of things is certainly encouraging. (The best part is how the interviewer gets completely owned after expecting some sort of dumb-ass answer.)
• On that note, why does the man-on-the-street interviewer in that clip come at his subjects with such a chip on his shoulder? I always followed the “catch more flies with honey” principle when doing man-on-the-streets. Considering you’re going up to a complete stranger and asking them to give you honest opinions, that seems like the only way to do it.
• There are some things that Rev. Wright says amidst the vitriol that make sense and are legitimate criticisms. Certainly the United States has serious issues with how it’s treated its minorities. But how much positive change are you really going to affect by turning all of your listeners off of the very system that needs to be fixed? This is my problem with many leftists: conservatives jump in and take control of societal institutions, but so often liberals prefer to sit on the sidelines and wait for some perfectly fair system to magically evolve — while they leave control of that system to the aforementioned conservatives, mind you. I’m a liberal and I’m heading off to get my MBA in part because I believe you can only change things by engaging them. And yes, I know that the media exists to spotlight things for scrutiny, but it’s a powerful societal institution that can’t be ignored.
Criticism is always more fun, but so often ineffective.
P.S. - did you know Wright was in the USMC?
• Should the U.S. boycott the Olympics this summer because of China’s brutaltreatment of Tibet? I really don’t know. I do know that it would be the greatest thing in years to see the entire U.S. Olympic contingent walk in to the stadium in “FREE TIBET” T shirts.
Bear Sterns: A Lose-Lose for the U.S.
Bear Sterns, the biggest player in the subprime mortgage crisis, agreed today to sell itself to JPMorgan for an astounding $2 per share. The deal was set up by the Federal Reserve, which feared that Bear Sterns’ failing to find a buyer would have flooded the market with mortgage-backed securities and ruined more banks holding similar assets. In layman’s terms, it would have hella sucked, so they had to do some stuff to stop it.
Reading this article, there really is a lot to be said for having Bear Sterns die a mean death. It’s fitting as a consequence of their rough-and-tumble business dealings that went against everything my rural-Ohio landlord grandpa knew to be true about real estate: giving cheap money to people who can’t pay is generally a bad idea, and that’s extra true when it’s done on a nationwide scale.
The problem is that our national economy’s financing has become highly centralized, such that letting any one of the several big-time Wall Street banks — Citi, JPMorgan, HBS, Merrill Lynch and all those others where Northwestern MMSS kids go to become analysts — is a recipe for a major economic hurtin’ on people who don’t necessarily deserve it. We’d all love to see Bear Sterns’ disaster-makers get what they deserve, but the U.S. has given them such power in the first place that we can’t afford to let that happen.
That’s why I grudgingly support this bailout for the sake of those on the far end of Wall Street who would be hurt the most, with the caveat that the market needs greater regulation on the front end: the government can’t afford — literally — to keep waiting until things fail before it jumps in with lots of tax-provided cash to save the day. It’s odd that this happens in the same week that Eliot Spitzer, chaser of investor irregularity, took such a public dive. More action in the spirit of what he was trying to do could have prevented things like this, but if anything the momentum in that sphere has gone the other way in the wake of Spitzer’s hooker-induced political demise.
I just hope that Bear Sterns is a wakeup call to the public, but because it’s so complicated and industry-specific, I doubt that will happen. The funny thing is that it’s really not that complicated: people who think they know better probably don’t, and giving them too much leeway is asking for trouble.
Update 3/17: This Paul Krugman column says it better than I did.
Turn of Phrase of the Day
One has to wonder at this stage whether Senator Obama and his children’s crusade completely appreciated that this is the way it would play out, but then their own actual delegate count is not immediately affected by last night’s events. What may be affected is their blissful sense that it would all be one long peace-and-love cakewalk to the nomination. (And this same uneasy feeling may communicate itself to the voters of the great blue-collar state of Pennsylvania, where there are a number of hardened adult political types who are wedded to an old-fashioned and unsentimental version of the Democratic Party.)
Agreed on the Pennsylvania problems for Obama. Hitchens is too harsh on the candidate in this piece, but I do love “children’s crusade”. Touché, old dude.
Philadelphians Fail Yet Again to Dispel Stereotypes
Two Philly residents, a man and his brother-in-law, got into a fight over which Democratic candidate was better suited to be President. One man almost died after being stabbed, and the other is in jail on a felony assault charge.
If this happens during the primaries, the general is going to involve live gladiator contests. Perhaps tridents may even be thrown.
Election Narrative?
After reading this Newsweek opinion piece on Obama, which is similar to this Slate piece and another post I wrote, I have to wonder if the Democratic election narrative won’t go something like this:
1. Obama wins nomination, which is attributed to his feel-good rhetoric
2. Media logically begins inspection into his positions
3. Said positions aren’t that different than anything already out there
4. Media / McCain emphasizes this point, deflating “message of change”
If excitement about change really is Obama’s biggest strength, then that’s potential trouble.
Going Out On a Less-Than-Graceful Note
From Politico:
Romney framed his departure as one of duty to party and country. “If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Sen. Clinton or Obama would win,” he said. “And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.”
“A surrender to terror” if a Democrat wins? Come on, man, that is so 2004.
The OS X Candidate?
This Tuesday is not only Fat, but Super!
Geeta and I were discussing the election yesterday, and I noted how Barack Obama’s oft-cited appeal to young, creative types like us — that might be flattery, but hey, we are the target demo — makes me worry that the rest of the country might actually resent him for it. His flock might be seen as too cool and hip for the average folk, and they’d hold it against him. Then I read this, and it brought that thought home in a neat geeky analogy:
I’ve taken shots at Apple before for their cooler-than-thou branding, and their fan base in some ways parallels the nature of Obama’s. But I think it would be unfair to make this comparison based on Hillary and Obama themselves, since Obama is putting forth ideas and optimism without exclusion, and some of his supporters just happen to trend toward the young and fashionable. Apple’s anti-PC thing is a deliberate marketing strategy; Obama’s audience came together on its own, and while the young part of it gets a lot of press, he has supporters of all stripes.
It’s still an interesting comparison of the two Democratic camps. And like Microsoft, Hillary is doing pretty well in financial market share herself.
The GOP in Florida
Quick reaction:
- I am relieved for America’s role in the world that Rudy Giuliani is out of the race. He was notoriously advised on “World War IV” by none other than Norman Podhoretz, the Iraq war advocate who also wrote last year that he “hopes and prays” for the bombing of Iran. Giuliani’s reputation for racial divide would not play well either at home or on the world stage. Bob Herbert said on TV today that it seemed that the more voters got to know Giuliani, the less they liked him, and that does seem to have played out with his Florida dropoff.
- While McCain is the favorite nominee of so many independents and those straddling the party divide, I do think he’ll have to nominate a very Bush-like running mate to help strengthen party support for his ticket. Look for someone like Sam Brownback to turn up again.
- I’m still surprised Romney has gotten this far.
I wonder how McCain vs. Clinton could play out?
Primary Picks Update
For anyone keeping score — aside from the dudes at work, who already are — I’m currently tied for 10th out of 14 Slate people in our work primary pool. We get different point values per state for each correct 1st, 2nd or 3rd-place pick up through Feb. 5, and right now I have 14. Here’s my correct picks so far:
DEMS - 10
Iowa (1 point each): Obama - 1st
N.H. (2): Clinton - 1st, Obama - 2nd, Edwards - 3rd
Nev. (1): Clinton - 1st, Obama - 2nd, Edwards - 3rd
G.O.P. - 4
Iowa (1): nope
N.H. (2): McCain - 1st
Mich. (1): Romney - 1st, McCain - 2nd
Nev.: don’t think so
S.C.: not happening
My picks so far include such spectacular misses as Giuliani placing in the top 3 for N.H. and Michigan without any campaigning, Ron Paul finishing 3rd in Nevada — I probably got distracted by the ever-present Paultard hacking threat — and Joe Biden staying in the race to finish 3rd in New York. (Where the hell did I come up with that one?)
So I’d like to thank the Republicans for not only playing havoc with our great nation, but costing me bragging rights among my coworkers. (Minus a certain high-placed editor, who at the moment is tied for last.) Much obliged, dudes.
Quick Hits
Yo.
- Romney winning Michigan is a little surprising, but then I say that as someone who picked him to win the state a few weeks back, only to later doubt my own pick. The reports said a lot of his votes came from the affluent Michigan suburbs, which would make sense because I really don’t see him ever connecting with middle-middle-, lower-middle- and impoverished-class voters. The dude is just way too inauthentic and screams “privileged guy” too loudly. I think the rest of the Michigan GOP must have been split evenly between McCain and Huckabee and allowed Romney to hook it up.
- Opinion: Chuck Brown and Fugazi are the best musical acts to come from D.C. Your thoughts? Not that it matters, being that I’m right. I’ll make a possible exception for Minor Threat, but that was Ian MacKaye too, so in that case you’re just debating MacKaye-led bands.
- The water heater died yesterday in our apartment building, so I had to heat up a pot of water and bathe with that, a washcloth and a bar of soap. I felt and smelled just as clean as I would have been following a regular shower, and the whole thing was strangely invigorating, which is probably because I was freezing my ass off as the water cooled between rinses. Still, if we someday have to go back to nineteenth-century life, I think I could handle it in the bathing department. Although if I did have to go back to the 1800s, I’d miss cryingwhileeating.com.
- Jeremiah pointed to this a while back, but talking about D.C. made me remember that it won for coolest city flag. I happen to think Phoenix and Wichita should be ranked higher and Denver lower, and would like to ask what exactly Provo was thinking.
Out.
Biden
We’re now up to three Democrats who’ve dropped out — Bill Richardson having dropped yesterday, who was preceded by Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. So, I thought I’d state my preference now for Biden as Secretary of State should the next administration be Democratic.
Biden is pretty high on himself — note how often he appears on TV — and he did vote for that 2005 bankruptcy bill that helped out the always-needy credit-card companies. (Looking at the voting list, I note that Clinton didn’t vote one way or the other on that highly controversial bill. Interesting!)
But the thing is, every time I see Biden on TV, I find myself agreeing with nearly everything he says. The guy clearly knows his foreign-policy stuff, and assuming he actually means it, I like that he’s made noise about sparking a constitutional war-powers crisis should the President attack Iran. He also is down for a federalized pseudo-partition of Iraq, which I still think is the best hope for a settlement.
Biden would make an excellent Secretary of State. I think he probably ran for President for that exact reason: he’s got to be self-aware enough to know that he wouldn’t match up with the heavy hitters, but he got his name out there in the public eye as someone who’s serious about the executive branch. So let’s get all up on it.
New Hampshire
- Clinton’s win today is supposedly a shocking victory, but I had called that one in my work primary pool. (I also called Obama winning Iowa. What.) I think the “crying” episode put her over the top: humanization was clearly exactly what she needed.
- Speaking of that video, am I the only one who doesn’t think she actually cried? The commentary I read made it sound like she pulled a “Leave Britney alone!”, yet after watching the video three times I still can barely discern the parts where her voice supposedly breaks:
I did find it to be strikingly emotional and personal for her, and that’s true whether you believe it was staged or not. (My vote: not staged.)
- And how stage-managed do people really have to believe you to be when there’s a big debate as to whether you genuinely show emotion or not? If I got up on stage and punched a dude in the face, I’m pretty sure you all wouldn’t be like, “Well, did he actually not like the guy, or did he just do this as a ploy to show his fist-forming abilities to the masses? It’s hard to say!”
- And did you know the “Leave Britney alone” commentator is a dude? I think I was the last person in the country to learn this.
- McCain won. Good for him. And where is Giuliani? He seems to have assumed the Fred Thompson role of just hanging out and figuring he’s cool enough to get votes anyway. I know he’s gunning for later states, but completely ignoring the first two primaries is pretty weird.
I predicted in my pool that the two winners today will be the ultimate nominees. But, we’ll see.
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