NFL Picks: Week 4

Last week: 8 out of 16 correct against the spread, which is also the probabilistic outcome of 16 binary events and makes that result thoroughly unexciting.

And on that note, this week I tried to get statistical up in this: I used a combination of factors, including Brian Burke’s formulas from the NY Times Fifth Down blog / Advanced NFL Stats and Gregg Easterbrook’s Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate, which says to pick the team with the best record or pick the home team in the event of the same records. Of course I’m picking against the spread, which complicates this mug, so I don’t have any regression coefficients for combining the two — I just mashed them together until it tasted good, like the serrano-jalapeno-tomato-lime salsa I made a week ago. (Which is the bomb.)

And finally, much congratulations go out to Coach George Novak of my alma mater, Woodland Hills High School, for his awesome work with the football program that’s produced the most active NFL players of any high school in the country. Throwin’ up the W, for real.

Record ATS Through Week 3: 23-21-4 | 52% correct (not counting pushes)

At Tennessee -6.5 Denver
At Pittsburgh -1 Baltimore
Cincinnati -3 At Cleveland
At Green Bay -14.5 Detroit
At New Orleans -13.5 Carolina
At Atlanta -7 San Francisco
Seattle -1 At St. Louis
NY Jets -5.5 At Buffalo
Indianapolis -7.5 At Jacksonville
Houston -3 At Oakland
At San Diego -8 Arizona
At Philadelphia -6 Washington
At NY Giants -4 Chicago
New England -1 At Miami